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The Poker Professionals Association
Research Chapter
15
COMPUTER ANALYSIS
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Most Professional Poker players feel that they have a pretty good idea of which starting hands in Hold'em are profitable and how different hands measure up.
In an effort to confirm or dispell some of ideas some pro hold about rankings we ran an extensive showdown simulation using Wilson Software. As you probably suspect, most results will probably confirm your present beliefs, thought a few may surprise you.
In order to ascertain that our computer simulations would be accuate, we ran in excess of 115 million starting hands to the river(with no betting or folding) for each of 10 opponents who all took their hands to the river. We may have overdone it a bit in running 115 million hands for each of ten players for over One Billion total hands; however, we think this massive simulation should eliminate any doubt as to actual ranking of starting hands in a game with 10 players.
Keep in mind that while these simulations are without a doubt extremely accurate, they are not live poker and do not take into account profitable bluff or semibluff situations that occur often in real games or other real life considerations.
Here are the TOP results in descending order:
Starting Hands & WIN rates
AA PAIR = 31.3%
KK PAIR = 26.4%
QQ PAIR = 22.7%
AK SUITED = 21.7%
AQ SUITED = 20.5%
JJ PAIR = 19.8%
KQ SUITED = 19.6%
AJ SUITED = 19.4%
AT SUITED = 18.9%
KJ SUITED = 18.8%
QJ SUITED = 18.5%
KT SUITED = 18.5%
AK OFFSUIT = 18.3%
QT SUITED = 18.0%
JT SUITED = 17.9%
TT PAIR = 17.7%
A9 SUITED = 16.9%
AQ OFFSUIT = 16.7%
A5 SUITED = 16.3%
KQ OFFSUIT = 16.3%
T9 SUITED = 16.4%
A8 SUITED = 16.2%
K9 SUITED = 16.1%
A7 SUITED = 16.0%
99 PAIR = 16.0%
J9 SUITED = 15.9%
A4 SUITED = 15.8%
Q9 SUITED = 15.9%
A6 SUITED = 15.6%
AJ OFFSUIT = 15.7%
A3 SUITED = 15.5%
KJ OFFSUIT = 15.2%
A2 SUITED = 15.0%
QJ OFFSUIT = 15.1%
K8 SUITED = 15.0%
T8 SUITED = 15.0%
AT OFFSUIT = 14.9%
88 PAIR = 14.9%
K7 SUITED = 14.7%
Q8 SUITED = 14.6%
J8 SUITED = 14.7%
JT OFFSUIT = 14.7%
98 SUITED = 14.6%
KT OFFSUIT = 14.6%
QT OFFSUIT = 14.5%
K6 SUITED = 14.3%
K5 SUITED = 14.1%
77 PAIR = 14.1%
87 SUITED = 14.0%
T7 SUITED = 13.9%
97 SUITED = 13.9%
K4 SUITED = 13.8%
76 SUITED = 13.7%
66 PAIR = 13.6%
K3 SUITED = 13.5%
Q7 SUITED = 13.6%
J7 SUITED = 13.5%
Q6 SUITED = 13.2%
86 SUITED = 13.2%
K2 SUITED = 13.1%
65 SUITED = 13.1%
Q5 SUITED = 13.0%
54 SUITED = 12.9%
T9 OFFSUIT = 12.9%
55 PAIR= 12.9%
A9 OFFSUIT= 12.8%
T6 SUITED= 12.8%
Q4 SUITED= 12.7%
75 SUITED= 12.7%
96 SUITED= 12.7%
J6 SUITED= 12.6%
44 PAIR= 12.6%
Q3 SUITED= 12.4%
J9 OFFSUIT= 12.4%
K9 OFFSUIT=12.2%
Q2 SUITED=12.3%
J5 SUITED=12.3%
64 SUITED=12.3%
33 PAIR=12.2%
85 SUITED=12.1%
22 PAIR=12.1%
A8 OFFSUIT=12.1%
A5 OFFSUIT=12.0
Q9 OFFSUIT=12.1%
53 SUITED=12.0%
J4 SUITED=12.0%
T5 SUITED=11.8%
A7 OFFSUIT=11.7%
95 SUITED=11.7%
A4 OFFSUIT=11.6%
J3 SUITED=11.6%
T8 OFFSUIT=11.5%
74 SUITED=11.5%
J2 SUITED=11.5%
T4 SUITED=11.5%
43 SUITED=11.4%
A6 OFFSUIT=11.4%
T3 SUITED=11.2%
98 OFFSUIT=11.2%
A3 OFFSUIT=11.2%
T2 SUITED=11.1%
84 SUITED=11.1
63 SUITED=11.1
K8 OFFSUIT=11.0%
J8 OFFSUIT=10.9%
52 SUITED=10.8%
Q8 OFFSUIT=10.7%
94 SUITED=10.8%
A2 OFFSUIT=10.7%
87 OFFSUIT=10.6%
K7 OFFSUIT=10.5%
73 SUITED=10.5%
42 SUITED=10.5%
93 SUITED=10.4%
97 OFFSUIT=10.2%
K6 OFFSUIT=10.2%
92 SUITED=10.2%
83 SUITED=10.2%
T7 OFFSUIT=10.1%
76 OFFSUIT=10.1%
62 SUITED=10.0%
K5 OFFSUIT=9.9%
32 SUITED=9.9%
82 SUITED=9.8%
86 OFFSUIT=9.7%
65 OFFSUIT=9.7%
J7 OFFSUIT=9.7%
K4 OFFSUIT=9.6%
Q7 OFFSUIT=9.6%
72 SUITED=9.5%
54 OFFSUIT=9.5%
K3 OFFSUIT=9.3%
Q6 OFFSUIT=9.3%
75 OFFSUIT=9.3%
96 OFFSUIT=9.1%
Q5 OFFSUIT=9.0%
K2 OFFSUIT=8.9%
T6 OFFSUIT=9.0%
64 OFFSUIT=8.8%
Q4 OFFSUIT=8.7%
J6 OFFSUIT=8.7%
85 OFFSUIT=8.6%
53 OFFSUIT=8.5%
Q3 OFFSUIT=8.4%
J5 OFFSUIT=8.4%
Q2 OFFSUIT=8.1%
J4 OFFSUIT=8.1%
T5 OFFSUIT=8.0%
95 OFFSUIT=8.0%
74 OFFSUIT=8.0%
43 OFFSUIT=7.9%
J3 OFFSUIT=7.8%
T4 OFFSUIT=7.7%
J2 OFFSUIT=7.5%
T3 OFFSUIT=7.4%
63 OFFSUIT=7.5%
84 OFFSUIT=7.3%
52 OFFSUIT=7.3%
T2 OFFSUIT=7.1%
94 OFFSUIT=7.0%
42 OFFSUIT=7.0%
73 OFFSUIT=6.9%
93 OFFSUIT=6.6%
83 OFFSUIT=6.4%
62 OFFSUIT=6.4%
92 OFFSUIT=6.3%
32 OFFSUIT=6.3%
82 OFFSUIT=6.1%
72 OFFSUIT=5.8%
As you can see, quite an extensive list, but it should certainly solidify your committment not to play bad starting hands in hold'em, shouldn't it?
For your convenience in relationship to the current topic, and as a continous reference, the poker point system is attached below.
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POKER PRO POINT SYSTEM
With the point system we assign each card a specific relative value or points. As expected, the Ace receives the highest value; however, you will note that cards rankings from 8 down receive no value, unless paired, connected or suited.
For learning purposes, we are using Texas Hold'em Poker game primarily because it is currently the leading money game both for tournaments and live play and it the easiest to use to demonstrate the point system, as only two cards are dealt each player initially. Naturally we will cover the use of the Point System in other primary poker games in later research chapters.
Individual Card Point Values:
- A= 6 points
- K= 5 points
- Q= 4 points
- J = 3 points
- 10=2 points
- 9 = 1 points
- 8 = 0 points
- 7 = 0 points
- 6 = 0 points
- 5 = 0 points
- 4 = 0 points
- 3 = 0 points
-
2 = 0 points
Pairs receive an extra value of 8 points.
Suited cards receive an extra value of 3 points.
Connected cards receive an extra value of 2 points.
Suited cards are written with a small "s" as: KJ's
Connected cards refers to directly adjacent cards such as: KQ or AK or KQ or QJ, not KJ or AQ.
Examples of values of first two cards dealt in Texas Hold'em:
- AA=20 points (6 points for each ace plus 8 points for a pair)
- KK=18 points (5 points for each king plus 8 points for a pair)
- QQ=16 points (4 points for each queen plus 8 points for a pair)
- AK's=16 points (6 points for the ace, 5 points for the king plus 3 points for being suited and 2 points for being connected)
- JJ=14 points (3 points for each jack plus 8 points for a pair)
- KQ's=14 points (5 points for the king, 4 points for the queen plus 3 points for being suited and 2 points for being connected)
- AK=13 points (6 points for the ace, 5 points for the king plus 2 points for being connected)
- AQ's=13 points (6 points for the ace, 4 points for the queen plus 3 points for being suited)
- T,T=12 points (2 points for each ten plus 8 points for a pair)
- AJ's=12 points (6 points for the ace, 3 points for the jack plus 3 points for being suited)
- AT's=11 points (6 points for the ace, 2 points for the ten plus 3 points for being suited)
- KJ's=11 points (5 points for the king, 3 points for the jack plus 3 points for being suited)
- KQ=11 points (5 points for the king, 4 points for the queen plus 2 points for being connected)
- 9,9=10 points (1 point for each 9 plus 8 points for a pair)
- AQ=10 points (6 points for the ace, 4 points for the queen)
It is interesting to note the value difference of 3 points between AQ's and AQ. This demonstrates the importance of suiting and is helpful in evaluating the correct value of a AQ starting hand. Suited it is definitely playable while unsuited it can be a marginal hand often played for more than it's worth.